In this section, we’ll first consider potential outcomes of the aforementioned ongoing EU policy revisions, before also considering how these revisions could impact key stakeholders. These stakeholders include investors, building owners and developers; architects and designers; product and material manufacturers; contractors; and politicians and decision-makers.

It is impossible to predict with accuracy what consequences these ongoing initiatives will have, partly because it remains to be seen how they will be implemented in the member states and how the various initiatives will affect and interact with each other. Not to mention, the legislative processes themselves will have to be concluded before we know exactly what we have to decide on. However, we can already draw some general and likely conclusions about possible effects:

The renovation rate will increase. As the requirements become stricter, for example building owners will have to refurbish and achieve certain certification requirements in order to be allowed to continue, for example, to continue renting. The current annual renovation rate in the EU is 0.2%, but if the EU’s climate goals are to be reached, this must be up to 3% annually by 2030 and maintained at this level until 2050i. Another likely consequence is that we will see less new construction in favour of more renovation.

Costs will go up. Building owners will have to build and renovate according to stricter documentation requirements as well as, for example, reinforced product requirements, for example in relation to climate footprints. For material producers, one will have to invest in decarbonisation of the production line, for example by switching to input factors with a lower climate footprint or, where this is not possible, use carbon capture and storage (CCS) to overcome process emissions. This could increase the costs of the product itself, but for an entire project it will only increase the costs marginally (e.g. the construction of a concrete bridge using CCS only increases the total cost by 1%, while cutting CO2 emissions by 51% [106]).

New and increased support schemes for renovations and climate measures. Renovation financing has received increased interest from the EU and the European financial institutions (eg the EIB), as appropriate financing flows and well-tailored financing mechanisms are essential to speed up large-scale renovations, thereby helping to achieve the 2030 and 2050 targets. The European Commission has launched a number of financing initiatives such as Smart Finance for Smart Buildings (SFSB) as well as requirements that financial support be linked to documented energy savings (EPBD) [107].

We build less, smaller and for increased sharing. There is often some focus on larger buildings, but 75% of the floor area in Europe is private homes [108]. Within the remaining 25%, there is great variation, with approximately half being commercial buildings and the rest including everything from public office buildings and health institutions to industrial facilities and warehouse buildings. Public buildings make up a relatively small proportion of the building stock.

New business opportunities and revenue streams. New business opportunities may arise for wholesalers and contractors in circular construction through, for example, "smart demolition", where entire building parts can be retrieved from a demolition site by dismantling the building in a way that allows these parts to be reused. As we know from the waste hierarchy, a wooden frame will have greater value than the wood it is made from and should therefore be preserved as much as possible. Increased reuse will result in lower sales of new building materials, which reduces the amount of embedded carbon.

New business models. Business models within the construction industry will have to be further developed to adapt to more sustainable operations. This will affect all actors throughout the value chain. For example, increased data availability represents another new opportunity, as more and more data is collected and made available. The EU's Building Stock Observatory (BSO) collects data on all building typologies across the EU; while national databases on energy performance certificates (EPCs) will provide up-to-date information on the performance of buildings that are sold, rented or that have undergone major renovations. Data can, for example, be used to assess the achievement of goals, compare different countries, regions and building types, and monitor the effectiveness of policies and financial instruments xcviii. It could also potentially be used to spur on new value-chain models.

These changes will affect a number of stakeholders:

For investors, building owners and developers: There will be an increased focus on embedded carbon in construction and renovation projects, which will give an increased understanding of the climate footprint of their buildings and opportunities to reduce this. This may result in increased costs in relation to planning and procurement of materials, but in the longer-term, drive forward markets and increase the availability of building materials with a lower carbon footprint. It can also ensure that tenants want to rent the building.

For architects and designers: It is currently architects and designers who are leading the way in efforts to reduce the carbon content of building materials, by seizing the opportunity to design with innovative materials, facilitate increased reuse and rethink both design and construction processes. Architects and designers will have to make choices about new construction vs renovation, design buildings that can change the type of use more easily, ensure that building parts can be dismantled and reassembled, plan for more sustainable construction methods and the use of more sustainable materials, as well as design aesthetically valuable buildings that we want to provide a long life.

For product and material manufacturers: In particular, the Construction Products Regulation (CPR) and the Ecodesign Regulation (ESPR) may set requirements to improve the climate footprint of materials, such as cement and steel and products such as windows. Requirements to reduce the content of embedded carbon can lead to changes in production processes. For example, CCS will be necessary to manage process emissions from cement production, in addition to new mixing materials for concrete. The competitiveness of innovative manufacturers with low-carbon solutions will increase. This places higher demands on product and material manufacturers to adopt new methods and materials with a lower climate footprint, as well as more reused and recycled materials. There will also be increased documentation requirements, for example in the form of product passports. Both manufacturers and contractors may have to deal with new players in the value chain, for example those who specialize in trade in reused building materials or in "smart demolition/disposal".

For contractors: Contractors will have increased tasks in ensuring that construction projects meet sustainability requirements. They will also have to work proactively with suppliers to ensure that tenders meet higher sustainability requirements. This places higher demands on knowing and adopting more sustainable production methods and materials. They will also have to adapt production to increased use of recycled and reused materials, for example types of concrete that need different curing conditions, which could affect the entire construction process.

For politicians and decision-makers: The revisions increase the pressure on the Norwegian authorities to prioritize embedded carbon emissions in building regulations and provide increased support for sustainable building practices. In addition to this, it also increases the pressure to keep up with EU legislation. For example, Norway has not yet introduced the previous (third) revision of the EPBD, which came in 2018, and thus puts Norwegian companies in a situation where the second version of the EPBD may be applicable when European competitors relate to the (upcoming) fourth version. This could have adverse consequences for Norwegian competitiveness, especially for innovative SMEs.